Thursday, September 30, 2010

Simple trend may decide outcome of Sunday's game between Ravens and Steelers


One of the most intriguing trends I have noticed about Joe Flacco's career is his tendency to struggle against 3-4 defenses. Let's look back at the last five 3-4 defenses the third year quarterback has faced.

The Ravens' first three opponents this season, New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns, in conjunction with last season's New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers all utilize the 3-4 style. If you average Flacco's quarterback ratings for each of the five most recent games he has played against these defenses, it comes to a measly 61.5 quarterback rating.



Both teams brag upon having tough, unforgiving defenses but the quarterback situation on both teams can be contrasted. Ben Roethlisberger is a two time Super Bowl winning quarterback who has made his money on miraculous fourth-quarter comebacks. Flacco is still relatively unproven, still yet put a game on his back and lead his team to victory.

This year Pittsburgh has come out of the gates playing as arguably the most ferocious 3-4 defense in the league. What are Flacco's odds as he enters the game with season average 66.3 quarterback rating? Yes, he has already faced two of the league's best defenses but he is challenging another this Sunday. I don't like his chances to succeed on Sunday unless the following occurs:

The running game gets in a groove. This has not really happened yet. The best outing the running backs have had so far this year was last week's gashing Cleveland's porous front seven. With pro-bowl athletes like James Harrison, Lamarr Woodley, Casey Hampton and Troy Polamalu all over the Steelers defense and Ray Rice suffering from a knee bruise, Rice and fellow running back Willis Mcgahee must be able to get the tough yardage to relieve Flacco of constant third and long scenarios.

The offensive line must pickup the exotic blitzes. One of the main reasons Flacco struggles against 3-4 defenses can be contributed to his discomfort with standing in the pocket and delivering accurate throws. Blitzers are constantly penetrating the Ravens' offensive line knocking Flacco to the ground and occasionally sacking him for crippling losses. Tackle Jared Gaither is practicing again but who knows if he will actually play this Sunday after being out of action for about eight weeks. A healthy Gaither would uplift an offensive line that has been weakened by injury and inexperience.

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